Please see advertisements below from VirtualMedia Partners and The Carmel Group and job notices from AFI. |
 |
Monday, April 15, 2002 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The NIEMEYER REVIEW is a free twice monthly newsletter on interactive TV and enhanced TV. Each newsletter features an article focusing on a specific subject, emphasizing analysis and including insights from key industry participants. To subscribe, unsubscribe or modify your subscription, click here. PVRs and the Local TV Station by Bill Niemeyer Last week I attended NAB 2002 in Las Vegas, the annual conference/show of the National Association of Broadcasters, billed as "The Convergence Marketplace." There was a lot of talk about ITV and PVRs in the New Media Professionals Conference. But on the exhibit floor, there was not much ITV to be seen. There were a few booths showing interactive TV products without much apparent interest from broadcasters (with the exception of the Alticast booth, which was busy, mainly with attendees from Asia). And not a PVR in sight. That's not to say that convergence wasn't widely in evidence. A tour of the massive exhibit halls indicated that broadcasters are very interested in adopting digital media technology as a means of lowering costs and increasing flexibility for their production, storage, and management of television content. Ironic because broadcast TV stations are probably the segment of the television industry most threatened by widespread adoption of the TV viewer's version of digital media management technology, the PVR. Why? To start, let's look at how much of the total US TV ad market dollars are directed through local TV stations. Overall ad market estimates vary, but let's use those for 2002 from Jack Myers.
The numbers show that among TV stations, broadcast networks, cable networks, cable operators and syndicators, ads placed through local stations (namely national spot TV and local broadcast TV) represent $20 billion or almost 40% of the total TV ad market. Of course, that is spread (very unevenly) among the approximately 1300 US full power commercial TV stations. And what are these stations showing? To get a rough snapshot, I used the local TV listings at Zap2It.com to look at "what's on" over stations seen in San Francisco during a one-week period. Keeping in mind this is a snapshot of one week in one city in one media market (the entire SF Bay Area is #5 in the US), here's what I found:
What it shows is that most of this week's SF local TV isn't "local." The "big four" network stations show 15-21% locally produced news, chat and information programming. Broadcasts of local sports only add 5% to two stations. KRON, an independent that recently lost its NBC affiliation, bills itself now as the "Bay Area's News Station" yet only slightly over a third of its programming is local. Otherwise, local programming is practically non-existent, and even then most of it is "repurposed" from duopoly or shared ownership stations. So what comprises most local SF TV? If it is a big three (NBC, ABC, CBS) station, 54% to 61% is coming from the network. For the Fox, UPN, WB, Pax and independent stations, it's mainly syndicated and paid programming. A few other things to note. Most US households see their local television stations via an intermediary. Of the 105 million US TV households, 87% subscribe to a multi-channel service (73 million for cable, 18 million for satellite). 70% of the approximately 270 million US TVs are connected to these services. In 1992, broadcast stations had thought they had a way to get their piece of the increasing revenue base of cable services with the passage of legislation allowing stations to choose either "must-carry" or "retransmission consent," in which they could negotiate with MSOs to charge fees to carry their signals. Instead, retransmission consent was used mainly by networks or large station groups to gain carriage of new cable networks (i.e. News Corp using Fox owned station consent to gain MSO carriage for FX - see a good article on this issue at http://www.emonline.com/topstorys/030402retransmission.html). In the end, little cash wound up in local station hands due to retransmission consent. The FCC reports that cable operator copyright fee payments for broadcast signal carriage totaled only $112 million in 2000 and were flat in the first half of 2001. PVRs are likely to be rapidly adopted by consumers given the passionate love for them among current users, great word of mouth, rapidly declining hardware costs and little likelihood of legal blocks to their commercial killing features (see the Niemeyer Review issue article "Digital Video Recorders - Please Adjust Your Picture?"). Consumers have shown the capacity to adopt a new TV technology very rapidly - 25% of US households have DVD players only five years since their first introduction. DBS providers have been aggressive in offering PVR technology and now MSOs are ramping up their PVR offerings in response. Rapid PVR deployments combined with their proven widespread use to skip or fast forward commercials are a big threat to anyone who derives revenue from the conventional delivery of TV marketing. But why particularly broadcast stations? Broadcast stations are a $20 billion TV industry that relies solely on ad revenues, has its product largely provided to its users by someone else, who's content is largely produced and/or aggregated by someone else and in the main is fractionalized. Stations have become primarily middlemen in a business that is well into the process of reducing their share of the money chain. That's what cable networks are designed to do. 20 years ago local stations got 56% of all TV ad revenues, now it's down to 40%. As TV stations' ability to compensate content providers for programming is reduced by PVR ad skipping, it will continue move to other outlets. Syndicators have shown their willingness to move their programming to platforms other than local TV (such as "Friends" on TBS) and could offer VOD and SVOD services built around programs of a single distributor, TV production entity or even a single show (how about a Martha Stewart VOD channel?). Broadcast and cable networks could be seen as being in the same boat with the stations, but they have mass, are experienced aggregators and can respond by leveraging their own TV production units or those owned by a parent media company. Like syndicators, they have been willing to develop alternate delivery paths for their programming via "repurposing" deals to present primetime shows on national cable networks within days of their first run (i.e. Law & Order:SVU which is seen on NBC and USA). They too could create their own VOD and SVOD services. Additionally, some cable networks (such as ESPN) are successful at charging cable networks for showing their programming. Of course, other cable nets must "pay to play." MSOs and DBS providers stand to gain by signficant revenues by providing PVR services (offsetting losses in the value of ads in cable network local avails). They will be able to charge additional user fees and gain revenue by using the PVR's hard drive as a platform for deploying TV marketing directly to their subscribers, including the paid programming seen so often on broadcast stations. So what are local stations to do? Get creative (literally) and call the lobbyists. Local TV stations really do have an important public service role in providing coverage of local news, public affairs, sports, information and entertainment. That's the stated reason for the existence of "must-carry." But if your programming day is comprised solely of the likes of Springer, Frasier reruns and Ab-Doer infomercials, where is your unique role? "Getting creative" by producing local programming or showing other programming that is truly targeted to their service areas gives stations a reason for being in a digital multi-channel universe. A look to radio might also help. TV did not kill radio but it changed it dramatically from the industry that in the late 1940's was the primary source of national network delivered electronic entertainment and information. A call to the lobbyists is probably in order too. Local stations need to get paid and "must-carry" guarantees only carriage. As PVRs reduce the effectiveness of over-the-air TV marketing, the money in television will increasingly flow through the hands of the multi-channel services. Local stations will need their fair piece of the money and/or fair access to the means of making it. And as before, it will probably take regulators and legislators to make the stations and MSOs/DBS providers play nice and share. |
Interactive TV Emmy Update When we last spoke about ATAS establishing an Emmy for "Outstanding Achievement Interactive Television Programming" in a the Niemeyer Review issue "Interactive TV Gets An Emmy" (which first broke the news anywhere - I think), some of the entry details were not yet set. They are now. Go to the Emmys ITV page for all the details. Entry deadline is May 31. Here's Some Non-Commercial TV, But First A Word From Our Sponsor So the commercial killing PVR will have no impact on public television station revenues because they don't get revenues from commercials. Or do they? We've seen the ever-extending underwriting messages at the end of shows. They've gone from the voice over "made possible by the generous support of the Chubb Group" (who are they anyway?) to 15 and now 30 second filmed messages. I had thought those messages were part of overall underwriting deals where the sponsor was an integral part of backing the program or series. Apparently not always. Public Broadcasting Marketing is a company that provides media services (including negotiation, placement, accounting, and analysis) for the placement of national 30-second spots on public stations. Granted there are restrictions on public TV advertising, including no calls to action, comparisons, promises of customer benefit or pricing. But looking at their "About" page , it otherwise looks like business as usual re: TV marketing. Can product placement be far behind? Will we see Charlie Rose interview Stephen Jay Gould while both of them work all four muscle groups of their waist and stomach using the Ab Rocker's patented Ripple Resistance System? I certainly hope so. PVR vs. DVR - I Give In In an earlier Niemeyer Review, I declaimed that I would use the term DVR (digital video recorder) rather than PVR (personal video recorder). DVR seemed more accurate (because a VCR could be a PVR) and most of the makers of the technology used that term. But I give in and will now use PVR. First of all, everyone else wants to call them PVRs. Peer pressure is strong. And, it's easier to say. Try this out loud. DVR, DVR, DVR. PVR, PVR, PVR. Brings to mind that everyone would really rather say NAPTE than NATPE. At least I'm not calling them all a TiVo. And to remind myself of that, I will Scotch Tape a Xerox of this to the Fridge |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Upcoming ITV/ETV Events Digital Media Wire ITV Panel Series 4/16 : LA - 4/17 : SF - 4/25 : NY Bill Niemeyer will be speaking at the Digital Media Wire panel - "iTV: New Interactive Services Fuel Big Expectations; Slow Market Penetration Raises Questions: How Big is iTV Going to Be?" on Wednesday, April 17 at City Club of San Francisco at 9AM. Also on the panel are: - (moderator) Sean Badding, VP and Senior Analyst, The Carmel Group - Martijn Lopes Cardozo, VP of Product Management, GoldPocket Interactive - Peter Schultz, Director of Business Development, PopTV Program, Liberate - Bridget Steele, Program Manager, Microsoft TV - Mitchell Linden, Head of Operations, North America, BBC Technology Carmel Group - Satellite Entertainment 2002: TV & Radio from Space - 4/24-25 - Carmel NCTA Cable 2002 - 5/5-8 - New Orleans VirtualMedia 'interactiveTV Global RoadShow' - Spring: 5/21 LA, 5/22 SF, 5/24 Denver - Fall: 9/30 Chicago, 10/2 NY, 10/4 Miami Bill Niemeyer will be moderating a panel at the VirtualMedia 'interactiveTV Global RoadShow' on Wednesday, May 22 at the Clift Hotel in San Francisco. On the panel are: - Ben Isaacson - Executive Director - AIM - Mateo Jaramillo - Director Interactive Product Management - Predictive Networks - Lisa Kruglov - VP Business Development - RespondTV - Howard Hall - Vice President - Spyglass Integration Carmel Group - Convergence 2002 Dinner Series, Advertising in a Digital Age - 6/19 - Marina del Rey CTAM - Summit 2002 - 7/14-17 - Boston |
TO UNSUBSCRIBE OR MODIFY YOUR SUBSCRIPTION - SEE BELOW
TO SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE CONTACT US CENTRIMEDIA WEB SITE Legal and Privacy Information Centrimedia respects your privacy and does not share or sell our subscriber list to third parties. Copyright © 2002 Centrimedia - All Rights Reserved. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Advertisement
VirtualMedia Partners 'interactiveTV Global RoadShow' The Innovative Virtual Media Global RoadShow explores the New Paradigm of Interactive Television with a unique worldwide overview. Multi Award winning Professor Duane Varan PhD & Peter Marshall, Fellow of the Royal Television Society put the USA iTV space in perspective with Europe, Japan, Asia, Australasia and South America. The VirtualMedia iTV RoadShow which rolled out across the country in January 2002 and hailed a major success*, has been extended and expanded by a panel of expert advisors to include the latest advances and developments from the major iTV economies across the world and brings a platform agnostic approach, with live examples, to the opportunities in the future of iTV Content, Sales and Marketing. *Press Release (http://www.virtualmediapartners/pressrelease) . See the latest iTV developments - worldwide . Chart the growth in JAPAN, ASIA and AUSTRALIA . Demos and results of actual interactive advertising campaigns. . The role of the Agency - FCB and Saatchi and Saatchi - Nike, Volvo and Pizza Hut . EUROPEAN rollout and consumer response to interactive services . How "T-commerce will surpass the internet by 2004 and dominate B-2-C" . Digital Technologies - how they revolutionize marketing and delivery . "How to boost viewers, sustain loyalty and add subscriptions" . Covering advertisers tests run and ROI including research results . Interactive sports - RealityTV -EPG's..account for 51% of iTV ad revenue by 2005" For further details on the Advisory Board/Tracks/Dates/Venues/Costs click on the HTML link. http://www.virtualmediapartners.com/globalroadshow/ Check out the early bird special discount Availability - 40% tickets sold Dinner and a Deal invitation free - AIM Association (www.interacitvehq.com) in Los Angeles and San Francisco limited availablity yaqub@virtualmediapartners.com Tel: 917 432 2906 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Advertisement 
The Carmel Group - 7TH ANNUAL SATELLITE CONFERENCE Satellite Entertainment 2002: TV & Radio from Space http://www.carmelgroup.com/conferences/dbs2002/dbs2002.cfm Wednesday & Thursday, April 24-25, 2002 at the Hyatt Regency in Monterey, CA Keynote Speakers: FCC Commissioner, Kevin Martin, Former TCI Chairman, Leo Hindery, Stan Kozlowski Former Chairman of the SBCA & Que Spaulding of Starz Sponsored by: DirecWay, DirecTV, Canal+ Technologies, NDS Americas, Space Systems/Loral, NRTC, Liberate Technologies, Starz Encore, SES Americom & SkyStream Networks. 
The Carmel Group - Convergence 2002 -Advertising in the Digital Age Wednesday, June 19, 2002, 6-10pm Marina Beach Marriott, Marina del Rey, CA http://www.carmelgroup.com/conferences/conv2002/conv2002.cfm Contact: tel: 831-643-2222, fax: 831-645-1055 email: info@carmelgroup.com Other than broadcasting itself, new technology promises to change advertising, perhaps more than any other industry. Digital video recorders, video-on-demand, electronic program guide, datacasting, and interactive TV technologies promise to usher in a new advertising age. An age that will be defined by new forms of ad campaigns such as product placement, program sponsorships, story line placement, and targeted advertising. This forum will take these topics and provide a roadmap for anyone interested in understanding what these technologies mean both for advertisers and content providers. Registration: Early Bird rate: $60 (until 4/22). Regular: $75 or Group discount of 3 for $195. Rates valid online until June 17. Cost is $90 at the door. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
ITV/ETV Jobs AFI’S eTV LAB IS HIRING! Become a part of the eTV community’s most high-profile eTV production environment. Explore the future of interactive storytelling and next generation TV production. EVENTS & OUTREACH MANAGER - Plan all events, as well as marketing, promotion, recruitment, and outreach activities for the eTV Lab and Workshop. (full time) CONSULTANT – Full time temporary beginning approx. 5/15/02 for approx. three months. Must have strong contacts and existing relationships in eTV industry. ADMIN ASST - Support AFI Enhanced TV Director and staff in all office and administrative needs. (part time) Resumes to: Marcia Zellers, Director of Enhanced TV, mzellers@AFI.com (please mention you saw this in the Niemeyer Review) |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||